Disaster risks we can no longer ignore

ACCORDING to the forecasts of mathematical modelling systems from international meteorological agencies, a moderately strong El Niño condition is expected to persist during July 2026, and it is projected that the condition may develop into a very strong “Super El Niño” by the end of 2026.

Although the El Niño phenomenon occurs in the Pacific Ocean, its impacts are generally observed worldwide in the form of ab­normal rainfall patterns, irregular storm occurrences, higher daytime temperatures during upcoming summer periods, droughts, and other extreme weather events. Although El Niño remains moderate, abnormal rainfall patterns in the Eastern Hem­isphere could trigger heavy downpours, strong winds, and cyclonic storms.

In addition to the impacts of El Niño, Myanmar expe­riences various natural dis­asters every year during the monsoon season, including heavy rainfall, floods, and in­undation. In particular, people living in the river delta areas have to endure the risks of flooding during the rainy sea­son. Therefore, preparations and preventive measures must be undertaken in ad­vance to mitigate the natural disasters that may occur dur­ing the monsoon season.

According to the obser­vations of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, due to the possible strength­ening of the monsoon winds over the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, thunderstorms and rain are expected in Nay Pyi Taw, Yangon, Bago, up­per Sagaing, Ayeyawady and Taninthayi regions, Kachin, Kayin, Chin, Mon, Rakhine and northern and eastern parts of Shan states from 10 to 18 July. Heavy rainfall may occur in some areas.

Due to these weather con­ditions, natural disasters such as heavy rainfall, strong winds, flash floods, and landslides may occur. Therefore, people living near hilly and mountainous areas need to remain alert to the risk of landslides, while those living near small rivers and streams need to be aware of the risk of flooding and inundation. Domestic air transport services, as well as coastal and offshore fishing vessels and ships operating along the Myanmar coastline and in the open sea, also need to take necessary precautions in advance.

Natural disasters include both those that can be forecast in advance and those that are difficult to predict. Regarding predict­able hazards, people are urged to pay close attention to and follow the weather information and warnings issued in a timely manner by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. This notice is issued to raise public awareness and encourage everyone to take preventive measures against heavy rainfall and natural disasters.