Strong low pressure may form over Central Bay of Bengal from 16 May
A strong low-pressure area may be likely to form in the central Bay of Bengal from the night of 16 May, said meteorologist U Win Naing.
He forecast that on 17 to 19 May, the maximum wind speed is expected to be 40 miles per hour and the maximum wave height to be eight feet in the delta and near the Rakhine coast.
While there are varying initial locations, such as the southern Bay of Bengal in the ECMWF-AIFS model and the METEOBLUE NEMS model, the Gulf of Mottama in the ICON model, and the northern Andaman Sea in the NOAA GFS model, both the NOAA GFS and the ECMWF-AIFS made the same forecast as it may approach the Bangladesh coast on 19-20 May.
With a 60-per-cent likelihood of cyclogenesis in the northern Bay of Bengal, the latest data on 9 May indicates that the intensity of the wind and rainfall may vary depending on the location of the low-pressure system, likely initiating on 15 May.
On 11-15 May, heavy rain and strong winds are expected over Taninthayi, Mon, Kayin, Ayeyawady, Yangon, Bago, southern and eastern Shan, Nay Pyi Taw, southern Magway, Mandalay, and lower Sagaing regions and states.
If a likely low-pressure area developed into a strong marked one after 15 May, it might bring heavy to very heavy rain to northern Rakhine, Chin, upper Sagaing, Kachin and northern Shan states and regions, he said. — MT/ZN
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